Analyzing The Effect Of Climate Shocks On Food Insecurity In Adamawa State, Nigeria

Food insecurity remains a persistent development challenge in Nigeria, particularly in Adamawa State where agriculture forms the backbone of rural livelihoods and climate shocks increasingly threaten household food security. This study empirically examined the effect of climate shocks on food insecurity in Adamawa State, Nigeria, with particular attention to drought, flooding, rising temperature and altered rainfall patterns. The study adopted a quantitative research design using cross-sectional data collected through structured questionnaires administered to 520 respondents across eight Local Government Areas selected from the four Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) zones of Adamawa State. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationships among climate shock variables and the four dimensions of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food stability and food utilization. The measurement model demonstrated satisfactory internal consistency and convergent validity, with Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability values exceeding the recommended threshold of 0.70. The structural model revealed that climate shock variables explained 26.8% of the variation in food availability, 23.8% in food accessibility, 51.4% in food stability and 41.5% in food utilization. The hypothesis testing results showed that drought had a significant positive relationship with all four dimensions of food insecurity (β = 0.200, 0.240, 0.460, and 0.291; p < 0.01), while rising temperature also significantly affected food availability, accessibility, stability and utilization (β = 0.275, 0.266, 0.209, and 0.285; p < 0.01). Flooding significantly affected only food utilization (β = 0.123, p < 0.05), while altered rainfall patterns showed no significant effect on any dimension of food insecurity. The study concludes that climate shocks, particularly drought and rising temperature, constitute significant threats to household food security in Adamawa State. The study recommends that government at both federal and state levels prioritize the development of climate resilient agricultural systems through investment in irrigation infrastructure, water harvesting technologies, and drought-resistant crop varieties to reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture and enhance household capacity to withstand climate shocks.