Sahel International Journal of Administration and Governance (SIJAG)
Military Spending And Health Outcomes In Nigeria
Biyama Chama Reuben — Adamawa State University Medical Centre, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria
Hafiz Ismail — Department of Economics, Federal College of Education, Yola, Nigeria
* Corresponding author
Sahel International Journal of Administration and Governance (SIJAG) · Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
· pp. 49-55
Published 29 September 2026
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Published 29 September 2026
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Abstract
This study examines the association between military expenditure and population health in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is drawn from SIPRI through the World Development Indicators (WDI); life expectancy, under-five mortality, real GDP per capita and fertility are obtained from WDI. We estimate trend-adjusted ordinary least squares models with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors and use annual first differences as the principal sensitivity check. A secondary model adds domestic general government health expenditure for 2000–2023. In the trend-adjusted level model, a one-percentage-point higher military expenditure share is associated with 0.750 additional years of life expectancy (p = 0.032), but not with a statistically discernible change in under-five mortality (p = 0.494). The life-expectancy association disappears in first differences (0.046 years, p = 0.777) and in the shorter health-expenditure specification (p = 0.937). A dynamic change model finds no joint military effect, while a 2000–2023 subsample changes the life-expectancy sign; serial correlation remains in mortality models. The data therefore do not establish a robust impact of military spending on health outcomes. Security benefits, fiscal displacement, reverse causality and common trends remain plausible competing explanations. Policy should evaluate security effectiveness alongside protected health financing rather than infer that a change in military allocations alone will improve health.
Keywords: military expenditure, life expectancy, under-five mortality, Nigeria, health financing, time series